Total grain and oilseeds exports predicted to rise by 1.7 per cent a year to 29.3m tonnes

AUSTRALIAN grain and oilseed production is forecast to rise over the next five years to reach 42.6 million tonnes by the end of the decade, but there are no spectacular price rises on the horizon.

That’s the view of the national commodity forecaster, ABARES (Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences), which was delivered to this week’s Outlook conference by research economist Neil Thompson.

Looking to next season, ABARES is tipping a national wheat crop of 24.4m tonnes, exports of almost 18m tonnes valued at $6 billion, and a price of $339 a tonne (APW 10-net pool return).

Canola plantings in 2015-16 are forecast by ABARES at 2.75 million hectares which are expected to produce 3.26m tonnes.

Canola exports are predicted at 2.4m tonnes valued at $1.37 billion.

Canola prices are forecast at around $530/t in 2015-16 compared with $485 this season.

Next season ABARES expects Australian farmers will plant 3.7m hectares of barley with production tipped at 7.5m tonnes.

Feed barley prices are forecast at $268/t and malting barley at $281.

ABARES expects plantings of grains and oilseeds will rise slowly to about 22.5m hectares by 2019-20.

Total grain and oilseeds exports are also predicted to rise by 1.7 per cent a year to 29.3m tonnes by decade’s end, with a projected value of $9.3 billion (in 2014–15 dollars).

Wheat exports are tipped by ABARES to grow by one per cent a year to 19m tonnes, worth $5.7 billion (in 2014-15 dollars), with more shipments heading to Asia at the expense of North Africa and the Middle East.

Demand in Asia is expected to rise over the medium term and Australian wheat exports to the Middle East and North Africa are expected to face increasing competition from the Black Sea region.

Coarse grains exports are forecast to rise from 7.2m tonnes in 2016–17 to 7.5m tonnes in 2019–20.

More of our coarse grains exports will also head to Asia on the back of increased demand for malting barley in China and South East Asia, where consumers are increasing their taste for beer.

 Source : Grains riding steady: ABARES – Agriculture – Cropping – General News – The Land

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